Publications by Norman A. Bailey

The petrokingdom proves me right

Feeling besieged and abandoned, Saudi Arabia's rulers have embarked on a risk-laden strategy.

Publication Date: Friday, January 8, 2016

Very seldom does a columnist have the experience of having one of his or her predictions begin to take shape within weeks, much less in 24 hours. But that is what has just happened.   {read more}

The petrokingdom in peril?

Predictions that events in Saudi Arabia will be key to regional developments in 2016 have much merit.

Publication Date: Monday, January 4, 2016

A number of analyses and New Year predictions have centered lately on what events might happen during 2016 involving Saudi Arabia.  {read more}

Middle East Poker

Publication Date: Wednesday, December 16, 2015

Anyone who knows how to play poker knows the likely final results of a situation like this. Eventually, with a huge pot of chips piled up as a result of competitive raises, one of the players will see another and show his hand. Then all the others must do the same. The bluffs will be called and the player with the best hand will win. OR, everyone else will fold and the most skillful bluffer will take the pot without even having to show his hand.  {read more}

Israel and the clash of civilizations

The decay at the core of Western civilization is leading to increasing anti-Israel rhetoric and reality.

Publication Date: Friday, December 4, 2015

In the 1990's, Samuel Huntington wrote about the "clash of civilizations", and specifically predicted that the next global conflict of that nature would be between Western (Judeo/Christian; Greco/Roman) civilization and radical Islam.  {read more}

What should Israel really fear?

The IDF has Iran covered, but there are less obvious threats that could be no less potent.

Publication Date: Monday, November 30, 2015

A former director of the Central Intelligence Agency recently stated that the intelligence community in the US has a perfect record on identifying future threats: "We have never been right." The one thing we know nothing about is the future. Nevertheless we have no choice but to try to peer through the fog and at least identify those potential threats which would seem most likely and try to position ourselves to confront them.  {read more}

What a downed Russian plane may portend

An IS attack on the Suez Canal, Iran and Russia fomenting strife in Saudi Arabia - such violent scenarios make awful sense.

Publication Date: Friday, November 13, 2015

It is now generally accepted that the Russian commercial airliner that crashed in the Sinai fell victim to a terrorist attack through the introduction of a bomb into the cargo hold, presumably hidden in a crate or container and labelled as containing as some harmless product. Islamic State (IS) has claimed responsibility and there is no reason not to believe it.  {read more}

Israel can finesse global changes

As China and Russia mount challenges to US hegemony, Israel has a good hand to play.

Publication Date: Friday, November 6, 2015

The panorama of international relations is changing with dizzying speed and increasing complexity. Governments now compete with hundreds of non-state actors (NSAs) for resources, influence and the other elements of power projection. Statecraft and intelligence are being transformed by the cyber-revolution, and defense and security agencies are scrambling to keep up with rapid advances in technology, often falling far behind.  {read more}

Iran unleashed

As Iran extends its influence to Israel's northern border, the madness of the nuclear deal is becoming apparent.

Publication Date: Monday, October 26, 2015

The two greatest physicists in history, writing centuries apart, agreed on one thing. Sir Isaac Newton wrote: "I can calculate the motion of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of people." Albert Einstein wrote: "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the universe."  {read more}

Turkish army won't stand by

As Turkey degenerates, a military coup is more likely than total failure, and not a bad outcome for Israel.

Publication Date: Tuesday, October 13, 2015

Famed commentator David Goldman, writing under the pseudonym "Spengler" in the "Asia Times," has published an analysis in which he asks the question whether Turkey is in danger of becoming another Middle Eastern failed state, joining Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Libya in that status.  {read more}

Israel can live with Russia in Syria

Russia is exploiting Western weakness to strengthen its position in the Mediterranean, but Israeli interests are not necessarily threatened.

Publication Date: Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Russia is back in the Middle East in a wholesale fashion, signing huge aircraft sales to Iran, making weapons supply contracts with Egypt and particularly, injecting air, naval and land forces into the super-sensitive Syrian coastal area, where it now has not just the naval base at Tartus but an air base near Latakia, with a large number of advanced aircraft already deployed and being used.  {read more}

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Total Records: 132