Americans will die on American soil in large numbers. So predicted the Hart-Rudman Commission seven months before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
No commissioner felt good about it getting it right. But the purpose of identifying "black swan" events before they happen is to give our leaders a chance to prevent them.
Here are some black swans that threaten to nest next year:
The unending Iranian nuclear threat: The P5+1 deal exchanging sanctions relief for building "trust and confidence" with the Iranian regime will accomplish nothing. The mullahs are not that interested in a civil nuclear program. They want the capability to build a bomb and put it in a missile so they can threaten other countries.