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Syria breaking up – Lebanon next?

“Before the six powers and Iran reconvene on June 30th, the map of the Middle East puzzle may have been extensively redrawn.” 

The already extremely complex Middle East may be on the verge of becoming even more so. At this point, the Sh’ia northern arc of Iran, Iraq, Assad and Hezbollah is in confrontation with the southern Sunni arc of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States (with the partial exception of Qatar). Adding to the confusion are the attempt on the part of Iran to outflank the Sunni arc in Yemen, and the rampaging Sunni Islamic State athwart the Sh’ia arc.

It would appear that the northern arc may be about to suffer a further rupture. Reports indicate that Assad’s forces are on their last legs and may soon disintegrate. Such a development would have the following implications:

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