Articles

A seismic shift is happening in the Middle East

The chaos of the region makes predictions difficult, but Israel could become a key strategic ally for Gulf states.

The one thing about which we know nothing is the future. That being the case any non-conditional prediction about the future is not worth the paper its written on or the breath used in uttering it. The best an intelligence analyst can do is to identify patterns, signals and signs and endeavor to put them together in such a way that they point to a more likely than not future situation.

Even with the best information and the best analysis, however, a former US Director of Central Intelligence was quoted as saying that “The intelligence community has an unbroken record when it comes to forecasting the future. We are never right.”

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