Norman A. Bailey is a Professor of Economics and National Security at IWP and Former Senior Director of International Economic Affairs with the White House National Security Council.
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The petrokingdom proves me right

Very seldom does a columnist have the experience of having one of his or her predictions begin to take shape within weeks, much less in 24 hours. But that is what has just happened. 

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Middle East Poker

Anyone who knows how to play poker knows the likely final results of a situation like this. Eventually, with a huge pot of chips piled up as a result of competitive raises, one of the players will see another and show his hand. Then all the others must do the same. The bluffs will be…

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Israel and the clash of civilizations

In the 1990’s, Samuel Huntington wrote about the “clash of civilizations”, and specifically predicted that the next global conflict of that nature would be between Western (Judeo/Christian; Greco/Roman) civilization and radical Islam.

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What should Israel really fear?

A former director of the Central Intelligence Agency recently stated that the intelligence community in the US has a perfect record on identifying future threats: “We have never been right.” The one thing we know nothing about is the future. Nevertheless we have no choice but to try to peer through the fog and at…

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What a downed Russian plane may portend

It is now generally accepted that the Russian commercial airliner that crashed in the Sinai fell victim to a terrorist attack through the introduction of a bomb into the cargo hold, presumably hidden in a crate or container and labelled as containing as some harmless product. Islamic State (IS) has claimed responsibility and there is…

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Israel can finesse global changes

The panorama of international relations is changing with dizzying speed and increasing complexity. Governments now compete with hundreds of non-state actors (NSAs) for resources, influence and the other elements of power projection. Statecraft and intelligence are being transformed by the cyber-revolution, and defense and security agencies are scrambling to keep up with rapid advances in…

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Iran unleashed

The two greatest physicists in history, writing centuries apart, agreed on one thing. Sir Isaac Newton wrote: “I can calculate the motion of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of people.” Albert Einstein wrote: “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity, and I’m not sure about the universe.”

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Turkish army won’t stand by

Famed commentator David Goldman, writing under the pseudonym “Spengler” in the “Asia Times,” has published an analysis in which he asks the question whether Turkey is in danger of becoming another Middle Eastern failed state, joining Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Libya in that status.

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Israel can live with Russia in Syria

Russia is back in the Middle East in a wholesale fashion, signing huge aircraft sales to Iran, making weapons supply contracts with Egypt and particularly, injecting air, naval and land forces into the super-sensitive Syrian coastal area, where it now has not just the naval base at Tartus but an air base near Latakia, with…

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