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Proving Cause-and-Effect for Decisions: a Workshop at IWP

Tue, Jul 19, 2016, 4:00pm - 5:00pm

You are cordially invited to a workshop* at IWP:

Proving Cause-and-Effect for Decisions
a Workshop at IWP

Dr. John Hoven
Problem solving innovation broker; operational qualitative analysis theorist; U.S. Department of Justice, Antitrust Division, Economic Analysis Group (ret.)

Tuesday, July 19
4:00 PM

The Institute of World Politics
1521 16th Street NW
Washington, D.C.

**Please bring a pen or a pencil and some scratch paper



networksEveryday problems in the real world are not random draws from a validated model. They are unique, ill-defined messes that reflect the astonishing nuances in ordinary human behavior. For actionable intelligence, we need to know what happens, here and now, if we do A, B, and C? We need proof of cause-and-effect in a sample size of one-not hazy judgements formed from control groups that lack representative validity.

Dr. Hoven’s experience with everyday problems in the real world consists of several decades investigating business mergers for the Antitrust Division of the Justice Department – everything from chicken farms to jet fighter radar. Often these were industries he had never heard of, and he had 3 weeks to go from clueless, to a recommendation on whether to open a full-blown investigation.

Dr. Hoven prepared this workshop for presentation at the Annual Conference of the International Association for Intelligence Education (IAFIE) (June 23-24, 2106, Breda, The Netherlands).  The workshop explains the essential basics of proving cause-and-effect (for prediction, monitoring, assessment) in a particular local context (sample size of one).

*This event is hosted for the benefit of attendees and subsequent viewing audiences. The views and exercises presented herein originate solely from their owner, not IWP. Therefore, Workshops at IWP do not necessarily reflect the school in an academic, institutional, or philosophic sense.