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Prof. David Glancy participates in study on nuclear conflict

In a recent study conducted by Project for Study of the 21st Century (PS21), a new global think tank, Professor of Strategy and Statecraft and recently appointed Walter and Leonore Annenberg Chair of International Communications, Dr. David Glancy, was one of the 50 experts asked to participate. According to the study, experts see a rising risk of nuclear war with 60 percent concluding that the risk had grown over the last decade. Overall, they predicted a 6.8 percent probability of a major nuclear conflict in the next 25 years killing more people than the Second World War. 

The survey featured 50 individuals, including leading international academics, former senior military officials and private sector political risk specialists. According to Peter Apps, the executive director at PS21, “This is the first survey we know of like this.” He added that, “There has been plenty of talk of rising tensions with Russia and China in particular but it’s very rare to try and put numbers on that.” 

Some other findings of the poll: India and Pakistan were viewed by the experts as the most likely to fight, with a 40 percent chance of conflict. The chance of conflicts between Iran and North Korea and their respective enemies were also seen as high. Experts also found a 21 percent chance of conflict between Russia and NATO over the next 20 years.  The participants in the study also believed that there is an increased chance of asymmetric and ambiguous confrontation between great world powers.

The full report can be downloaded from PS21’s website.